March 22, 2021
The hedge fund industry has not enjoyed one of the best performances in the past decade, but recent data shows that this could change in 2021. In fact, this class has surpassed the S&P 500 last year, starting to prove its worthiness not only as a means for diversification but also for returns. The coronavirus pandemic has brought unexpected challenges for investors, and some trends created in 2020 are bound to continue in the next years. The following sections look at the top hedge fund industry trends in 2021 and beyond.
Hedge fund performance in the past has not been very rewarding, but the recent market crash showed investors why hedging is so essential. Despite a negative public perception, hedge funds managed to record impressive performance, although the allocation was reduced from approximately 40% in 2018 to only 23% in 2020. Being actively managed, hedge funds might perform better than expected in the following years. Let’s see the most prevalent hedge fund trends of the future and why they are likely to impact investment decisions.
Hedge fund assets are expected to balloon in 2021, fueled by the most significant growth in the past ten years. The last decade was marked by performance growth, while this year is expected to record an all-time peak due to net inflows.
In 2020, fund performance in this industry generally met investors’ expectations despite the pandemic. A continued positive performance after Q1 led to improving investor confidence; the continuous growth in the hedge funds industry is expected to come from allocating funds to strategies with higher expected returns, shifting away from low-yielding fixed-income investments.
The hedge fund industry used to be dominated by long-short equity, reaching approximately 40% of all the industry assets. Long-short equity refers to taking a long position in underpriced stocks and short stocks that investors expect to decrease. However, this strategy started to underperform in the past ten years, showing investors that other strategies, such as CTAs or other fixed income strategies, have a better performance.
One of the causes for the decreases in long-short equity was related to prominent tech names and passive S&P 500 index funds. This ballooned the large growth stocks and the index, negatively impact the relative valuation of small and large-cap stocks, value and growth stocks, and US and foreign stocks.
In other words, many investors spotted the opportunity to use fundamental research while relative valuations are still behind historical averages. This leads to the expectation of returning to wide adoption of long-short equity strategies.
Hedge funds and private equity firms adopted similar strategies; typically, private equity firms offer a drawdown structure, while hedge funds provide evergreen structures. However, the last ten years registered a more blurred offering. In other words, hedge fund managers started to provide both evergreen and drawdown funds.
Another change brought by the blurred line between hedge funds and private equity refers to research departments. While these used to be organized according to fund structure, teams are now shifting to organization according to asset class or strategy. This convergence between the two can impact the entire hedge fund industry. For instance, private equity firms are already included in capital introduction events.
The current pandemic is not the only factor behind healthcare institutions’ emergence as a standalone investing category. This was already fueled by existing characteristics, such as an aging population and massive medical technology investments. This segment has always been one of the fastest growing and is likely to retain this position in the future.
Numerous healthcare institutions invested billions of dollars in a broad range of assets, including pension funds, foundations, and others. As the expertise in alternative investments continues to grow, the hedge fund industry will see major improvements in this category.
The pandemic has changed the way people work. The broad adoption of virtual meetings forced the hedge fund industry to adapt. In turn, this led to reduced time and expenses for investors and managers, among others. Scheduling flexibility and other benefits of virtual meetings allow investors to take advantage of this new practice, so it is likely to remain in 2021 and beyond.
Another benefit is that early-stage virtual meetings allow smaller funds to enjoy better access to investor meetings. As a result, it is expected that a substantial portion of introductory meetings and other events are carried out virtually. In contrast, later-stage meetings might still take place physically when possible.
Although ESG in the hedge fund industry is not news, there was little to no implementation. In the past years, many European institutions have already integrated ESG in investment diligence, and it seems that it will become the new standard.
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted economic and social inequalities, so there is an increased focus on social justice. Public and private pensions funds, sovereign funds, and endowments foundations reach about 65% of the hedge fund industry and play a crucial role in this matter.
While ESG criteria started simple, such as restrictions for tobacco or alcohol industries, they are ow becoming more complex. Investors can filter companies according to third-party ratings, and those companies with low ESG scores can be excluded from the portfolio.
A current method is to focus on different sub-categories of ESG, such as adding assets related to renewable energy to address climate change. While this practice is quite common for private equity, it is expected that it will find its way into the hedge fund industry, too. Even more, it is expected that the ESG criteria will also apply to the investment manager; for instance, institutional investors are screened according to workforce diversity, so hedge fund managers are expected to adopt diversity policies to ensure future success.
It is expected that a significant and permanent change in 2021 and beyond is related to Brexit. In the European Union, free trading between the member countries put non-EU countries at a major disadvantage because of the struggle to comply with EU regulations. UK hedge funds are the second largest market worldwide, so some argue that the focus will shift to North American investors rather than European ones after the finalization of Brexit.
The hedge fund industry is under current transformation due to the increasing costs of having a hedge fund firm while fees decrease. As a result, more and more small- and medium-sized businesses will seek to outsource many activities to reduce expenses, including technology, accounting, compliance, marketing, and other research- and investment-related activities.
Outsourcing these aspects of hedge fund businesses will offer lower fees, higher efficiency, and greater expertise. Large hedge fund businesses with their own infrastructures may seek revenue diversification strategies, such as acquiring competing firms.
Although institutional investors have been increasing their focus on private credit strategy markets, this is expected to be maintained throughout 2021 and beyond. Last year changed the way business works and even challenged many firms’ viability, even though governments offered extensive liquidity support. Many firms could not access these funds, so private credit managers had to fill in this need.
For investors, private credit helped to achieve a new type of income, hedge, and even diversification due to the increasing volatility of their investments and lower fixed-income yields as a result of the pandemic.
The digitalization trend has reached new peaks due to the coronavirus pandemic. Many businesses realized the necessity of having a robust infrastructure, and many firms in this industry turned their attention to ICT abilities. Many have already started to use alternative data as one of the main components of their decision-making process, and there are numerous opportunities for technological developments to impact the hedge fund industry trends in 2021 and beyond.
Apart from upgrading the investment process, digital assets, including cryptocurrency, continue to grow. For instance, more and more hedge funds stand out from the crowd due to their attention to blockchain and DLT (distributed ledger technology) space. This alternative asset class is still in its infancy, but it is expected to grow and become more and more important in the next years.
The investment world is rapidly expanding to include non-standard methods in an attempt to beat the market. For instance, more and more hedge funds now include AI (artificial intelligence) and machine learning methods in their processes.
These developments help hedge fund managers to increase the accuracy of their predictions by using alternative data. For example, investment decisions can be made using non-traditional information, such as geolocations, credit card transactions, and more. It was proved that these hedge funds had better performance in the long-run compared to others.
The hedge fund industry trends seem to focus more extensively on defensive strategies, which means that it becomes more stable. Some of the most favorable options include hedge funds that adopt quant investing, but also multi-strategy ones. Generalist equity has also registered some increase, but not as high as market neutral, sector-specific, and others.
There is a rising gap between small hedge fund firms and larger businesses. The latter category has been able to raise money, while less established businesses are not as successful in fundraising. In other words, mid-sized companies and those without a strong track record have issues with attracting investors. Despite this, the general sentiment regarding fund allocation to hedge funds is optimistic for 2021.
As technological developments affect the world of investment, most of the current cryptocurrency hedge funds were founded in 2018 and 2019. These are not only funds that have exclusive cryptocurrency portfolios but may also combine other financial assets using different hedge fund strategies. Many of these cryptocurrency hedge funds are located in the United States and the United Kingdom, but it is expected to become widespread in the following years.
According to a global survey, allocations to hedge funds dropped from 40% in 2018 to only 23% in 2020. This decline was correlated with increases in private equity, credit, and real estate. Despite this lack of investor confidence in hedge funds’ ability to perform, they registered impressive results during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. In fact, many specialists argue that hedge funds will continue to rise in the next years because hedge fund strategies using active management are known to perform well during volatile, uncertain times.
Traditionally, hedge funds have always required six figures initial investments, which means that not everyone has access to them. However, this restrictive environment is bound to change in the next years. More specifically, retail-oriented and publicly traded funds already have a much smaller minimum, so there might be looser restrictions when it comes to who can invest in hedge funds, allowing for a broader expansion.
As the coronavirus pandemic changes the way people work, many hedge fund managers found themselves investing more time in technology and remote work. Most voices claim that the focus on digitalization is here to remain for the following years. With a slowly changing regulatory environment, the industry may keep expanding in 2021 and beyond.